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In both states, the in-person voting bloc is significantly friendlier to Republicans than the vote-by-mail portion of the electorate. In Florida, Republicans are making up a larger chunk of in-person early voters than are Democrats. This is the reverse of what we’ve seen in prior years. Again, this generally conforms to the expectations of those following the polls. I should point out that none of these facts guarantees the polls are going to be right on the money. In politics, the difference between 48% and 51% is all the difference in the world.

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