But as I noted at the top, the average poll in Iowa paints the picture of a race that is too close to call. There are plenty of polls taken within the last few weeks that show Biden or Trump slightly ahead or slightly behind (Monmouth University, New York Times/Siena College and Quinnipiac University).All that being said, there are many reasons to doubt that this Iowa poll is really telling us all that much. While Selzer is a fantastic pollster, every pollster has the occasional outlier. Selzer has been wrong before. Pollsters aren’t magicians. It’s the sign of a good pollster that they are willing to publish polls that don’t look like other ones.